Source Of The Betting Selections
Broadly there are three sources of our potential bets for analysis. They are;
- “Pedigree Analysis”
- “Dark Arts”
Often the original source is enhanced by, or confirmed by, one or both of the others.
This can come in many forms though I try to filter out rumour or second hand heresay and rely on primary sources (rather like a Historian would). Clearly the most primary source is direct from the trainer or the very closest connections. Over the years, I have amassed a number of friends within the industry that pass on news. Nowadays the “information” is far more reliable than in the past as technology has improved training methods. Gallops can be timed, time trials held, sectionals taken and even stride patterns analysed. The information is therefore more objective than subjective in many cases.
Often the advantage of knowing how a horse is currently training is like having another race in the formbook that the market, at the outset at least, does not yet know about. This doesn’t mean a horse will win, but it does mean we have additional knowledge and are invariably securing a value price.
The basis I use for pedigree analysis is the dosage index. An explanation of the dosage system is readily available on the internet and I have put together an explanation on the way I use dosage analysis.
The dosage index is primarily used to predict the likely stamina range of a horse. As a simple gauge it is effective, especially when dealing with lightly raced horses who the form book cannot yet accurately rate.
However, using the dosage index as a simple number is a very blunt instrument. The figures need to be interpreted and to do that other factors have to be included.
The most obvious is a horse’s age. A horse may have a dosage profile that suggests 8-10f will be his optimum stamina range as a mature horse, but, as a 2yo, a stiff 6f may be optimal. When horses are juveniles, this analysis can also be affected by a horse’s foaling date, as a January foal holds a substantial maturity advantage over a May foal.
The class of horse and the class in which it is competing needs to be considered. In lower class events, horses that have an advantage in others areas, can often perform well enough to win a race even if it is outside it’s ideal stamina range.
The time of year a race is being run is a factor for 2 and 3 year olds. As horses mature they become able to utilise their stamina potential. This is reflected in the weight for age scale. Related to this is the number of races a horse has competed in.
A further nuance is that not all distances are equal. For example, 12f at Brighton on fast ground is very different from 12f at Pontefract on soft ground in terms of a stamina test.
Pedigree analysis is therefore more sophisticated than a simple Look-Up Chart of dosage numbers. It can often predict improvement that is difficult for the market to foresee and is therefore not only useful as one of the 3 origins of bets, but also as a tool that either confirms or casts doubt on other sources. It can also highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the opposition.
A name I give to the other sources as they cover areas unknown to the majority of punters in the marketplace.
These are the likely bets of very shrewd punters/syndicates when the early markets are known (as they are with the major meetings). These bets are often placed by teams in London and, to a lesser extent, other big cities where there are a high number of betting shops. These bets come from people using sophisticated analysis of form, video analysis, pace and sectional times to differing degrees. Some I receive direct from source, others from those placing the bets.
These are all winning punters using tools and techniques that are not known to the majority and are therefore ahead of the market. They are a fascinating source and often, unless I receive something directly from an individual, it is difficult to decipher the reasoning behind the proposed bet. Generally, if I cannot see, at least potentially, why a particular horse is being backed, I will defer from passing it on.
I hope this gives you some background to the sources of the bets and analysis I provide for clients here.