SATURDAY 29^TH JUNE

Hi All,

A really busy Saturday, but strangely very quiet for our “edges”. We have also lost some potential bets as prices have either opened too short, or, shortened in early trading.

As a result of your feedback I have constructed a couple of short explanations of our use of the dosage index and also pace/sectional times. These should appear on the website soon.

Finally, I have been given advance notice of possible ante-post bets tomorrow. If these materialise, then there will be a message tomorrow around 6.00pm. Quite unusual that this should happen on a Sunday.

2.45 York 1.5 pts e/w SAVALAS @ 9/1 Sky (6 places) or 10/1 Corals, Lads, Betway, Boyles (5 places)

7.30 Doncaster  1pt Captain Jameson @ 13/2 Betfair, PP, Boyles

1.50 Newcastle 1 pt e/w Staxton 8/1 Hills (5 places)

3.25 Newcastle 0.5 pts e/w Bartolomeu Dias @ 12/1 Sky (6 places)

                             0.5 pts e/w Time To Study @ 14/1 Lads, Corals (first 5)

York

2.45

GREAT PROSPECTOR

Stable very keen on him off a mark of 94….they feel he is potentially better than that.

They have been keen to run him at 6f for a while on the back of some excellent speed shown at home.

His dosage profile doesn’t really back this up, but he has only 8 dosage points 1-1-4-2-0 and so it could be inconclusive.

Ran with promise last time (traded as low as 2.88 in running) but got a bit stranded from his draw and suffered a negative pace bias.

A potential negative is his draw in 6 as most of the pace seems to be drawn high.

SAVALAS

He worked very well prior to his penultimate run at York, which was a decent effort off a mark of 96 (races off 92 here).

Last time out can be ignored because of the very heavy ground.

On last year’s York form where he traded at a low of 2.2 in running off a mark of 98, he would win this race if reproducing that.

Potentially returning to form given the info prior to his penultimate run and this race has a good each-way shape.

Probably well drawn (with the pace in 11).

Doncaster

7.30

CAPTAIN JAMESON

Last time out was too prominent in a fast run race. Can be upgraded for the negative pace bias. He may also have needed the run after 7 week absence.

He operates well at Doncaster; has twice run well at the course.

6f and good ground have been conditions of his best performance ratings

Both of his handicap wins have come in 0-85 class and he is 3/5 in class 4 or below.

Every handicap race racing at 84 or less (85 here ) has seen him trade at less than 3 in running.

A clear pattern horse.

Windsor

4.35

SPIRIT WARNING

Races off a mark of 88 but two of his siblings have been rated 119 and 112.

Most of the dams offspring stay 12f and the dosage numbers are 0-2-5-3-0…0.82…-0.1 which suggests he could improve for a stiffer test than the 1m here. However, his running style has seen him travel well over a mile.

Opposition here are exposed handicappers.

Curragh

5.20

MADHMOON

Produced an outstanding 10.74 s sectional from the 3f to the 2f I the Derby, despite stumbling.

During the Winter it was rumoured that this horse could be better than stable star Awtaad and the evidence of homework (brilliant) and racecourse running style does seem to suggest that 10f will be his optimum trip. This is backed up by his dosage of 2-3-6-3-0.

Sure to travel well in this race.

BROOME

Was right at the top of the Ballydoyle pecking order as a 2yo. Being a son of Australia they admire the offsprings mental attitude and how straightforward they are physically.

He is best getting a lead off a fast pace and so the Epsom Derby should have suited.

However, he did have a long “trip” around the outside and suffered a negative pace bias (although the same can be said for most of the principals)

Dosage suggests this trip and possible further will suit…2-0-12-6-0…0.67…-0.1 and would really benefit from a strong pace here (sure to get it with a number of stable companions).

Newcastle

1.50

STAXTON

Last time out found 7f stretching his stamina.

Looks potentially well handicapped…has won off 99 and been competitive off 101 at 6f (races off 95 today)

Potentially well drawn in 10…statistically high numbers have an advantage at this course and distance.

Cheekpieces return and there is stable optimism.

3.35

BARTHOLOMEU DIAS

Has a 71 day absence to overcome, but this was a deliberate ploy as he has been “saved” for this race after only getting a 4lb rise in the handicap for his last win.

Reported to be working very well ahead of this race.

Progressive.

Dosage of 2-1-9-6-0…0.71…-0.06 suggests this step up to 2m will not inconvenience and may bring some further progression.

Slight negative is his draw (low numbers have a very poor record..drawn 6…over this course and distance in large fields)

TIME TO STUDY

Ran an excellent race at Royal Ascot and looked a potential winner around the final turn, so a drop back to 2m from 2m 4f could suit.

Potentially very well handicapped off a 12lb lower mark than when 6^th in this race last year (a reproduction would win this…if one of the dark ones Gibbs Hill or Stratum isn’t exceptional).

Well drawn in 15 (high numbers have a surprisingly good record over course and distance in large fields)

Good jockey booking

Potential negative is the proximity of the Royal Ascot effort. The stats on stayers returning quickly are not good for this race, so he could run “flat”.

Newmarket

5.35

UMMALNAR

The plan over the Winter for this scopey half-sister to the stayer Sheikhzayedroad was to end up contesting Group races.

She has taken a little time to come to hand and was beaten on her reappearance over 10f at Ripon earlier this month.

Connections felt she would stay. In time she might, but her dosage suggests that 8-10f will be her range 1-1-12-0-0. The drop back to 1m should benefit.

Stable runners are outperforming at present.

Best Wishes

Saturday July 6^th

Some housekeeping; the next scheduled message will be Wednesday Evening 10^th July for the Newmarket July Meeting. There will be messages on;

Wednesday 10th (Newmarket July)

Thursday 11th (Newmarket July)

Friday 12th (Saturday Message + Newmarket July).

Friday 19^th (Saturday Message)

Friday 26^th (Saturday Message)

Monday 29^th (Glorious Goodwood)

Tuesday 30^th (Glorious Goodwood)

Wednesday 31^st (Glorious Goodwood)

Thursday 1^st August (Glorious Goodwood)

Friday 2^nd August (Saturday Message + Glorious Goodwood)

The above are scheduled messages and there may also be Ante-Post Messages on an ad hoc basis. I will give prior warning for these, so that you know when to expect a message.

Also, there are now guides on the website that cover explanations of stuff such as dosage numbers and sectional times/pace analysis.

2.05 Haydock

1 pt e/w Mind The Crack @ 7/2 Tote, Betfred (3 places) if unable to access 3 places…1pt @ 4/1 PP

1 pt          Sir Ron Priestley @ 3/1 Lads, Hills, VC, Corals, Boyles

2.25 Sandown

1 pt e/w Escobar 14/1 Boyles (4 places) or 12/1 Hills (5 places)

3.00 Sandown

1.5 pts e/w Hidden Message @ 5/1 Sky, Unibet, Hills, Corals, Tote Betfred

3.35 Sandown

1 pt e/w Regal Reality @ 15/2 VC Corals, Black Type

3.40 Leicester

1 pt Monsieur Noir @ 6/1 Betfair, PP

3.10 Beverley

2 pts e/w Requinto Dawn @ 9/1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Haydock

2.05

MIND THE CRACK

Undoubtedly progressive and was highlighted by connections at the start of the current season as one to follow.

Progression has occurred as stamina has been exploited. Dosage of 2-0-10-8-0, an index of 0.54 and a centre of distribution of -0.2. This 2f step up to 14f here will suit again.

Prominent runner, which is an advantage at Haydock.

SIR RON PRIESTLEY

Before Royal Ascot, he was identified as the trainer’s best chance in the King George Handicap (had multiple entries) and one of the best chances at the whole meeting.

Was progressive up until that point but had excuses in defeat (front run at too strong pace) and possibly unsuited by the soft ground (first run on such a surface).

Dosage of 2-1-14-7-0…0.71…-0.08 suggests that 14f should suit as much as 12f.

Prominent runner, which is an advantage at Haydock.

2.40

ENBIHAAR

Has already performed to a level that would have made her very competitive in 4 of the last 5 runnings of this race (though this remark applies to 4 of the other 6 runners in a race that has some real depth despite the numbers)

Dosage of 3-3-9-1-0…1.91…0.50 is not that of a filly likely to prove best at 1m 6f and yet produced her best performance rating to date over that trip at York last time out. Dropping back 2f today to 12f should be to her advantage.

Worked very well prior to that York race when working better than Lah Ti Dar and has recently worked very well on her own (which is very much a tactic of John Gosden with fancied runners).

Stable target this race (won 4 of the last 10 runnings)

Potential to get an undisputed lead here.

HIGHGARDEN

Has been working with higher rated stable companions such as Coronet recently.

Stable target this race (won 4 of the last 10 runnings)

Was returning from a 9 month absence when recording her best performance rating to date last time out at Chelmsford (a slowly run race that did not play to her strengths)

3.15

AL MUFFRIH

Described during the Winter as “a well handicapped (off 91 at the time…today races off 97) horse that was suited by fast ground and up to Royal Ascot class in handicaps”

His 3yo form looks very good, he was beaten 5 lengths in his last run as a 3yo at Sandown by horses now rated 105 and 114.

He suffered an injury after Sandown and returned after 11 months off at Newmarket Guineas meeting where he put up an improved performance rating despite pulling very hard.

Last time out won well at Redcar despite being held up in a moderately run race.

His dosage of 2-1-17-0-0…1.35…0.25 suggests that 12f may be the outer boundary of his stamina.

Sandown

2.25

ESCOBAR

Was second in this race last season off a mark of 102 (races off 98 here)

Also 2^nd at Ascot (last run of the season) off 102 and traded 1.12 in running that day.

A reproduction of his run last year (here or Ascot) would win this race on performance ratings.

Connections feel he has to be held up in a strongly run race and so this field of 14 with 6 habitual prominent racers and an uphill finish is ideal.

Stable currently achieving 60%+ runners that run to form.

51 day break to freshen him up after 3 quick runs in April/May.

3.00

HIDDEN MESSAGE

Was thought during the Winter as being a possible Coronation Stakes filly.

Only run 4 times; impressive winner on debut, had a couple of excuses on her second run (she was wearing a hood which her trainer now believes was a mistake, and raced on the side of the course more exposed to a wind), first time this season she needed the run and was given a quiet ride against a negative pace bias and last time out she was again too far back in a slowly run race.

A fast pace here looks likely with 3 horses (Muchly, Main Edition and Beyond Reason) likely to vie for the lead. This should suit Hidden Message better.

You will see she is a solid filly who takes a bit of getting fit but is working well now.

This race looks below it’s historical standard with none of the runners having yet run a performance rating that would usually be required to win this race. She is one of the progressive ones.

3.35

ENABLE

Has a performance rating that wins this race in every one of the past 5 years.

Has a 245 day absence to overcome. To give that some perspective 93 older horses have attempted to win Group 1 races first time out in the last 10 years and 7 have been successful. One of those was Nathaniel in this race trained by John Gosden…..so mixed messages there.

Enable has been working consistently well for over a month on the gallops, beating every work companion hollow.

The race is all about her and how close to top form she is.

REGAL REALITY

Has improved now stepped up to 10f from 8f with a career best performance rating last time out.

Dosage of 2-1-9-6-0…0.71..-0.06 confirms such progression was always likely.

His two best ever runs have come at Sandown on good/firm ground.

Has been working consistently well, winning gallops with top class handicappers to prepare for this.

5.20

SASHENKA

Interesting filly who habitually travels well in her races and strongly hints at talent not yet fully revealed.

Competed at 7-10f and dosage of 4-0-14-6-0…0.85…0.8 suggests that the outer edge of that range will suit best.

This looks very competitive with any number of horses hinting at progression.

Chelmsford

2.50

NOBLE LINEAGE

Has to overcome a 71 day absence and a bad draw here in 10.

Last time out he pulled too hard, stumbled in the straight and injured himself (hence the absence) at Sandown.

Previously at Wolves he had shown great qualities (which his trainer suggests come from his dam, who was equally determined to win races) and produced an excellent sectional rating when quickening from a poor position.

He has a notably quick stride pattern and coupled with his dosage of 3-2-12-3-0…1.22…0.25….suggests that this drop back to 8f will suit.

DALAALAAT

William Haggas trained this horse’s half-brothers and feels he will become a 90’s horse (races off 84 here).

He works well at home and travels well in his races, which has persuaded his trainer to keep him to 8f. Dosage of 1-3-10-6-0…0.82…-0.05 suggests 10f would suit better and so the race needs to be strongly run here.

Fallon is good value for a 5lb claim with over 50% of his rides running to their performance rating or better.

4.00

GALLATIN

Was mentioned over the Winter as an exciting filly who was going really well at home, but met a setback and didn’t debut until June.

She was given a very quiet introduction that day and travelled well, though too far in arrears to ever figure in the finish.

LAST LOOK

Full sister to Farhh and Racing History from the same connections.

She has been working well with reasonable horses including Cantiniere (who runs in the preceding race).

She is held in high regard and the stable have a 30% strike rate at this course.

Possible downside is dosage of 1-9-15-0-1…2.06…0.35…which suggests that 10f will be plenty far enough on her debut.

Leicester

3.40

MONSIEUR NOIR

A half brother to 2 Group winners

Works very well at home. Last year work rider John Lowe felt he was a sprinter.

Dosage of 3-0-11-0-0..1.55…0.43 suggests that 7f could suit better than 6f.

This horse was mentioned over the Winter and the original plan for his path through the year has been changed as he was slow to come to hand.

On reflection, he may have needed his seasonal reappearance but his work is now back to it’s usual high standard.

Makes his handicap debut today and could be well treated on homework…stable are 20%+ with handicap debutants.

BLACKHEATH

Regarded as a horse that can win many more races by Ed Walker.

A big powerful horse who looks progressive, but, because of his size, was not deemed to enjoy the downhill section at Epsom last time out.

Doubt here is that Leicester is partly downhill at 7f.

Beverley

3.10

REQUINTO DAWN

Races off a career low mark of 68 here despite travelling well before fading over 6f last time out.

Last season was travelling well in races off marks as high as 79

Has won off 84 in the past and showing signs of returning to that sort of form.

Connections report he is working better now than at any time this season to date.

Well drawn in 2 and does have the early pace to take advantage of that berth.

Stable runners currently running to form at the rate of 57%.

Best Wishes