Inside Information

Most peoples perception of “inside information” within horse racing would be a sure-fire winner from the trainer/jockey/stable lad. Life is seldom that simple and the reasons are myriad.

However, inside information is a great example of an “edge” that is useful when used at the correct time. Let us use an example from the football world. Let us say that Barcelona v Real Madrid in the Spanish Cup Final is priced at Barca 7/4, Real 7/4, Draw 11/4…….but you somehow know that Messi is unlikely to play, and that knowledge has yet to become public knowledge. The optimal time for you to use that information is NOW, because others will also soon find out and that information will find it’s way into the marketplace and Barca will drift and Real will contract in price. Messi is probably worth 0.4 of a goal to Barca in any given game and Real will soon be realistically priced at 5/4. You can obviously still lose the bet (Real may not win) but if you play that scenario 100 times and you have secured 7/4, you would undoubtedly come out well on top. But only if you secure 7/4.

In horse racing it is the same principle. I receive “information” from a range of contacts, these include those close to stables, informed punters, and, long-term winners who innovate via technology. It is a variety of sources, but they all are able to utilise their particular “edge” to make long-term profits. They do this by securing early odds/generous place terms because in most cases, the information will find it’s way into the marketplace and be eventually reflected in the price on offer.

Most days I will receive a dozen or more opinions, facts or pieces of information regarding the following days racing. I examine and evaluate them and attempt to gauge if the market has it accounted for. For years it was my job, now a pleasurable hobby.